КОНТИНУИТЕТ И ПРОМЕНЕ СПОЉНЕ ПОЛИТИКЕ САД ПРЕМА ЗАПАДНОМ БАЛКАНУ ЗА ВРЕМЕ ПРВЕ ГОДИНЕ БАЈДЕНОВЕ АДМИНИСТРАЦИЈЕ: ТРЕЋИ ОБАМИН ИЛИ ДРУГИ ТРАМПОВ МАНДАТ?

Милан Крстић

Сажетак

Многи аналитичари очекивали су радикалну промену у спољној политици председника Џозефа Бајдена, посебно у поређењу са претходним председником Доналдом Трампом. Годину дана након изборне победе, мишљења о томе колико је Бајден заиста променио спољну политику САД су подељена и варирају од оних који виде револуционарну промену до оних који виде само разлику у тону у већини кључних аспеката. Овај рад настоји да допринесе дебати кроз анализу континуитета и промене у спољној политици нове администрације према региону Западног Балкана. Иако су многи очекивали да Бајденова политика буде сличнија приступима председника Барака Обаме или чак Била Клинтона, овај рад аргументује да нова администрација задржава значајан део заједничког курса са Трамповом. Међутим, приметне су и одређене промене и модификације, али чини се да оне нису важније од елемената континуитета који постоје између односа две администрације према региону. Рад се такође обраћа узроцима оваквог континуитета и тврди да главни разлог за то лежи у структуралним факторима на нивоу међународног система. Остали разлози се могу наћи на државном (унутрашњем нивоу), као и на индивидуалном нивоу анализе.

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