Институт За Политичке Студије

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FROM EMERGENT TO GRAND STRATEGY: THE ABSENCE OF REFLEXIVITY IN IONUT POPESCU’S THEORETICAL SHIFT IN THE ANALYSIS OF TRUMP’S FOREIGN POLICY

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This paper examines in detail the theoretical shift of Ionut Popescu in interpreting the foreign policy of Donald Trump over eight years (2017–2025). Starting from the insight that authors change their views under the influence of their own theoretical frameworks, the paper focuses on the issue of reflexivity – the author’s ability to re-examine his own assumptions and to explicitly explain changes in his position. Through a systematic review of Popescu’s works (books, academic articles, and texts in influential periodicals), four chronological phases are distinguished. The first phase (2010–2017) covers the introduction and operationalization of the concept of emergent strategy, with a consistent application of a contextual framework. The second phase (2018) brings sharp contradictions – simultaneously advocating a grand strategy (in two works) and denying the need for it (in the Foreign Affairs article), without any explanation. The third phase (2019–2020) is characterised by the introduction of offensive realism while retaining emergent strategy, accompanied by partial, but incomplete, reflexivity. The fourth phase (2022–2025) culminates in the abandonment of his own contextual framework and a shift to a universal advocacy of offensive realism, without any justification. The paper shows that Popescu does not explain his theoretical shift, does not acknowledge contradictions within the same year, and selectively applies criteria, which indicates a multiple absence of reflexivity. Consequently, the reader remains permanently deprived of the reasons that led Popescu to make his shift from advocating emergent strategy to universally affirming offensive realism within grand strategy. It is precisely this unexplained nature of the shift that makes this case particularly instructive for the discipline of international relations: it warns that one’s own theoretical framework can be presented as the only correct view of reality, but also that key theoretical changes can occur in complete silence. This underscores the need for greater methodological self-awareness in foreign policy research.

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