Институт За Политичке Студије

Добрињска 11
11000 Београд

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THE CONCEPT OF DEMOGRAPHIC WINTER AND PROPOSALS OF MEASURES TO ESTABLISH A PRONATAL POLICY IN SERBIA

Сажетак

Demographic winter is a long-term process of population decline, caused by low birth rates, population aging, and continuous emigration. Its consequences directly affect the political, economic, and social capacities of the state. Serbia has been in this process for several decades, as confirmed by negative natural growth, an increase in the average age of the population, a decrease in the number of families with children, and intensive emigration of young and working-age people. This paper is based on the assumption that demographic pointers can be seen as an early indicator of future economic, social, and geopolitical changes, because the population structure affects the capacity of the state to maintain its institutions, economic productivity, and political stability in the long term. Starting from the framework of demographic transition and the concept of demographic winter, the causes of depopulation of Serbia are analyzed, with special emphasis on unplanned childlessness, decreasing maternity rates, and changing reproductive value patterns. At the same time, the limited scope of existing population policies, primarily focused on financial incentives, is pointed out. The methodological framework of the research is based on the analysis of statistical data, a case study of the Republic of Serbia, and a comparative review of contemporary demographic literature. The spatial framework of the research covers the territory of the Republic of Serbia, and the time frame is the last two decades. The paper contributes to the theory of public policies by showing that demographic reproduction is a prerequisite for political sustainability and the preservation of the institutional capacities of the state. The particular contribution of this study lies in distinguishing between the total fertility rate, the motherhood rate, and the number of children per mother, as well as in conceptualizing pronatalist policy through three interrelated dimensions: institutional design, value framework, and policy instruments. The study advances the thesis that the demographic winter does not represent a temporary statistical phenomenon, but a profound social challenge that requires a long-term, value-based, and institutionally coherent state policy.

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