Институт За Политичке Студије

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SECURITY ASPECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: THE CASE OF AP KOSOVO AND METOHIJA

Сажетак

The paper analyzes the process of demographic transition in the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija, with a special focus on the security and military aspects of the attempt to albanization this part of the Republic of Serbia, which has been actively implemented since the end of the NATO aggression in 1999. Special attention is paid to identifying the role of demographic factors in the escalation of ethnic conflicts, the articulation of separatist aspirations, and the generation of asymmetric security threats, including armed rebellions, institutional violence, and terrorist activities. The paper’s theoretical framework assumes that demographic structure, its spatial distribution, and dynamics are long-term security variables of strategic importance, especially in politically unstable and ethnically heterogeneous regions. The paper’s methodological approach relies on the application of several complementary scientific methods. The content analysis method was applied in the processing of relevant strategic documents, normative and legal acts, reports of international organizations, and selected scientific literature in the field of security sciences. The historical-comparative method was used to examine the continuity and discontinuity of demographic processes over a defined period. The statistical method enabled analysis of available demographic and migration indicators, while the night lights method was applied as a relevant indicator of the spatial concentration of population, economic activity, and infrastructure development in this part of the Republic of Serbia. The research results indicate that the process of demographic transition, in synergy with intensive mechanical population movements, primarily migration, has a decisive influence on the transformation of the ethnic structure of Kosovo and Metohija. Although there is a general trend of demographic decline, the analysis shows that the relative decrease in the number of Kosovo Albanians is increasingly pronounced compared to the Serbian population, further indicating complex, multidimensional, and long-term, unstable demographic dynamics. The research results confirm the importance of demographic processes as a strategic security factor and indicate the necessity of their systematic inclusion in assessments of national and regional security, as well as in the formulation of state strategies.

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