Dragana D. Mitrović

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Fakultet političkih nauka, Univerzitet u Beogradu.

PERIODIKA

PANDEMIC’S EFFECTS ON CHINA’S FOREIGN POLICY AND ITS GLOBAL POWER ROLE

In this paper, we assume that China, like other major powers, does not change its strategic views and behaviour hastily, even being affected by powerful exterior influence like the Covid-19 pandemic. On the other hand, such significant global events could speed up or deepen ongoing trends and changes in major power relations, the global system, and China's place in it. Accordingly, changes in China’s foreign policy, as the most direct tool of realising its external goals, but primarily being a reflexion of its internal political dynamics and needs for domestic security and stability, should not be affected differently. Although assuming that there have not been and will be no change to China's foreign policy's main course and medium-term goals, we study the possible catalysing effect of the pandemic and eventual changes it caused. Our analyses will try to identify and examine these changes and continuities and prove our initial assumptions.

PERIODIKA

China in the Western East – and Beyond: Politics and Economics of the China Plus Sixteen Cooperation Framework

World economic crisis has focused, intensified and notably eased realization of huge Chinese interests in Europe and European Union. On the other side, it has significantly influenced change of the EU’s attitude towards China, which suddenly for some has become appreciated big investor, and even saviour of the EMU through purchasing the EFSF bonds, as well as Union’s economy on the whole. For the others, she remained a threatening imposer. Important alarming point of such attitude change supporting the later position has been reviving of the economic cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries thru “China plus Sixteen” framework. For Chinese and crisis stricken countries in Central and Easter Europe it was more promising and matching interest cooperation between investments and technology hungry CEE countries and China in global dispersing asset-acquisition process. Long history and tradition in cooperation since the very birth of the People’s Republic and absence of political preconditioning only supported the issue.

PERIODIKA

GEOPOLITIKA KINESKE ENERGETSKE STRATEGIJE U CENTRALNOJ AZIJI

Rad analizira uticaj nastojanja NR Kine da poveća svoju energetsku bezbednost kroz niz bilateralnih energetskih aranžmana sa država Centralne Azije, ali i Rusijom, te zemljama na obodu Kaspijskog mora na bilateralne odnose Kine sa ovim zemljama, njihovu multilateralnu saradnju, i naročito odnose sa Rusijom. Naime, autori polaze od promenjene uloge Kine, koja kao druga ekonomija sveta, izrasla na izvozno orijentisanim izvoznim industrijama, velikim potrošačima energenata, postaje ranjiva zbog bržeg rasta potrošnje energije od ukupnog rasta ekonomije, a naročito rasta proizvodnje energije, što je čini sve zavisnijom od povećanog uvoza. Nastojeći da umanji svoju energetsku zavisnost, Kina inicira niz istovremenih, mada dugoročnih mera, koje se sastoje od usvajanja nove energetske strategije i njenog realizovanja kroz reforme sistema domaće energo industrije, povećanja domaće proizvodnje, povećanja potrošnje obnovljive energije i štednje, povećanje uvoza energenata i njegova strukturna i geografska difersifikacija, stvaranje strateških rezervi nafte, ulaganje u izvore nafte i gasa u inostranstvu, ulaganje u transportne kapacitete i zaključivanje dugogodišnjih ugovora o uvozu nafte i gasa kroz ovu infrastrukturu. Autori porede načine i sadržaj jednovremenog kineskog prodora na tržišta zemanja u imenovanim geografskim područjima, u nastojanju da uoči strategiju ovog nastupa i njenu sadržinsku, geografsku i vremensku doslednost. Autori potvrđuju osnovnu pretpostavku da realizujući novu energetsku strategiju Kina suštinski menja kvalitet bilateralnih odnosa sa ovim zemljama postajući izuzetno bitan ekonomski, a time i politički partner svakoj od njih. Autori zaključuju da ostvarujući elemente svoje nove energetske strategije Kina menja globalno tržište energentima i istovremeno izuzetno jača svoju geopolitičku i geoekonomsku ulogu u Centralnoj Aziji, ali i globalno.

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