KONCEPTUALIZACIJA OTPORNOSTI U NAUKAMA BEZBEDNOSTI

Zoran Keković

Vladimir Ninković

Sažetak

Otpornost je poslednjih decenija postala sveprisutan termin u akademskom i stručnom diskursu usled, implicitnog ili eksplicitnog, prihvatanja nedostataka tradicionalnog pristupa prevencije. Izvedenica iz latinskog glagola “resilire” – skočiti unazad, otpornost označava sposobnost ili kapacitet sistema da se vrati u stanje ravnoteže nakon remećenja, ali i sposobnost sistema da se suoči sa promenom i da se na nju adaptira. Primena termina ima dugu tradiciju u različitim naučnim disciplinama – psihologiji, sociologiji, ekologiji, menadžmentu – dok se početkom XXI veka ovaj termin široko usvaja i u naukama bezbednosti. U poslednje dve decenije primetno je sve učestalije korišćenje ovog termina kao i njegove brojne konceptualizacije i operacionalizacije kako u naučnim radovima, tako i u strategijskim i legislativnim dokumentima. Proliferacija novih bezbednosnih pretnji stvorila je atmosferu nebezbednosti na globalnom nivou i primorala praktičare i zakonodavce da anticipiraju odgovore različitih segmenata sistema na spoljnje i unutrašnje činioce koji predstavljaju pretnje po funkcionisanje sistema. Autori su analizirali kako je koncept otpornosti definisan i operacionalizovan u različitim potpoljima nauka bezbednosti, kao što su nacionalna bezbednost, zaštita i upravljanje katastrofama i korporativna bezbednost. Šire posmatrano, u naukama bezbednosti postoje dva toka promišljanja otpornosti – jedno koje posmatra otpornost kao željeno stanje sistema, bilo da je reč o državi, zajednici ili organizaciji, i drugo koje otpornost posmatra kao strategiju menadžmenta onih rizika koje karakteriše visok stepen neizvesnosti. Termin otpornosti je danas prisutan u strategijama nacionalne bezbednosti velikih sila i drugih razvijenih država, a označava težnju ka održavanju prihvatljivog nivoa funkcionisanja, strukture i identiteta države. Popularnost koncepta bezbednosti u poljima upravljanja vanrednim situacijama i katastrofama u skladu je sa premisom da ljudi i zajednice poseduju adaptivne i organizacione kapacitete što je dovelo do zaključka da nadležne institucije ne treba da prosto upravljaju, već da pomažu i dopunjuju prirodne tendencije samopomoći i samoorganizacije osoba i zajednica izloženih nepovoljnim događajima. Kompleksna priroda organizacija kao socio-tehničkih sistema takođe je okarakterisana njihovom sposobnošću adaptacije na nepredviđene negativne događaje, a koja može biti unapređena kroz adekvatne politike, procese i organizacionu kulturu koje mogu pomoći organizacijama da održe ciljani nivo funkcionisanja tokom i nakon remetilačkog događaja. Napokon, otpornost se posmatra ne kao željeno stanje sistema već kao strategija za upravljanje rizicima sa visokim stepenom neizvesnosti, nasuprot anticipaciji i tradicionalnom menadžmentu rizika zasnovanom na identifikacijama pretnji i procenama verovatnoće nastajanja neželjenih događaja. Ipak, treba napomenuti da pristup otpornosti nije bez protivnika, a napadi najčešće dolaze sa pozicija Nove levice koji optužuju ovaj pristup za „depolitizovanje socijalnih struktura”, „prikrivanje odnosa moći”, „re-naturalizaciju društva” i predstavljaju je kao neo-liberalnu strategiju kojom se odgovornost za odgovor na rizike pomera sa donosioca odluka na one koji trpe posledice događaja. Dalja istraživanja o mogućnostima operacionalizacije koncepta otpornosti su neophodna kako bi se dale konkretne preporuke kako sistem može „postati otporan”, odnosno kako se koncept može primeniti na upravljanje sistemskim rizicima i neizvesnostima.

Reference

• Alexander, David E. 2013. “Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey.” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13 (11): 2707–2716. doi: 10.5194/nhess-13-2707-2013.
• Aradau, Claudia. 2014. “The Promise of Security: Resilience, Surprise and Epistemic Politics.” Resilience, International Policies, Practices and Discourses 2 (2): 73–87. doi: 10.1080/21693293.2014.914765.
• Argonne National Laboratories. 2010. Constructing a Resilience Index for the Enhanced Critical Infrastructure Protection Programme. Chicago: Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne Labs.
• Barasa, Edwine, Rahab Mbau, and Lucy Gilson. 2018. “What is Resilience and How It Can Be Nurtured? A Systematic Review of Empirical Literature on Organizational Resilience.” International Journal of Health Policy Management 7 (6): 491–503. doi: 10.15171/ijhpm.2018.06.
• Baum, Seth. 2015. “Risk and Resilience for Unknown, Unquantifiable, Systemic and Unlikely/Catastrophic Threats.” Environment Systems and Decisions 35 (2): 229–236. doi: 10.1007/s10669-015-9551-8.
• Bhamra, Ran, Samir Dani, and Kevin Burnard. 2011. “Resilience: The Concept, a Literature Review and Future Directions.” International Journal of Production Research. 49 (18): 5375–5393. doi: 10.1080/00207543.2011.563826.
• Bicknell, Jane, David Dodman, and David Satterthwaite, eds. 2009. Adapting cities to climate change: Understanding and addressing the development challenges. London: Earthscan.
• Biringer, Betty E., Eric D. Vugrin, and Drake E. Warren. 2013. Critical Infrastructure System Security and Resiliency. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
• Buzan, Barry. 1983. People, States and Fear: The National Security Problem in International Relations. University of North Carolina Press.
• Cannon, Terry, and Detlef Mueller-Mahn. 2010. “Vulnerability, Resilience and Development Discourses in Context of Climate Change.” Natural Hazards 55 (3): 621–635. doi: 10.1007/s11069-010-9499-4.
• Council of Australian Governments. 2011. “National Strategy for Disaster Resilience.” Australian Government, Department of Home Affairs. Last accessed 10 December 2019. https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-strategy-disaster-resilience.pdf.
• Dahlman, Ola. 2011. “Security and Resilience.” Resilience: Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Science and Humanitarianism 2: 39–51.
• Department for International Development [DFID]. 2011. Defining Disaster Resilience: a DFID Approach Paper. London: DFID.
• Đorić, Marija. 2018. “On Violence and Nonviolence in Political Theory: Some Conceptual Dilemmas.” Serbian Political Thought 18 (2): 127–140. doi: 10.22182/spt.18212018.8.
• Diprose, Kristina. 2015. “Resilience is Futile.” Soundings 58: 44–56.
• Dunn Cavelty, Miriam, Mareille Kaufmann, and Kristian Soeby Kristensen. 2015. “Resilience and (in) security: Practices, subjects, temporalities.” Security Dialogue 46 (1): 3–14. doi: 10.1177/0967010614559637.
• Ehlen, Mark A., and Vanessa N. Vargas. 2013. “Multi-Hazard, Multi-Infrastructure: Economic Scenario Analysis.” Environment Systems and Decisions 33 (1): 60–75. doi: 10.1007/s10669-013-9432-y.
• Fjäder, Christian. 2014. “The nation-state, national security and resilience in the age of globalization.” Resilience 2 (2): 114–129. doi: 10.1080/21693293.2014.914771.
• Fraccascia, Lucca, Ilaria Giannoccaro, and Vito Albino. 2018. “Resilience of complex systems: State of art and directions for further research” Complexity 2018: 1–44. doi: 10.1155/2018/3421529.
• Friedman, Thomas and Robert Kaplan. 2002. “States of Discord: a debate between Thomas Friedman and Robert Kaplan.” Foreign Policy, 129: 64–70.
• Haimes, Yakov Y., Kenneth Crowther, and Barry M. Horowitz. 2008. “Homeland security preparedness: Balancing protection with resilience in emergent systems.” Systems Engineering 11 (4): 287–308. doi: 10.1002/sys.20101.
• Holling, Crawford S., 1973. “Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems.” Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4: 1–23.
• Hollnagel, Eric. 2012. “Coping with Complexity: Past, Present and Future.” Cognition, Technology & Work 14 (3): 199–205. doi: 10.1007/s10111-011-0202-7.
• Hollnagel, Eric. 2014a. “A Tale of Two Safeties.” Nuclear Safety and Simulation 4 (1): 1–9.
• Hollnagel, Eric. 2014b. “Resilience engineering and the built environment.” Building Research & Information 42 (2): 221–228. doi: 10.1080/09613218.2014.862607.
• Hollnagel, Eric, Jean Pariès, David D. Woods, and John Wreathall, eds. 2011. Resilience Engineering in Practice, A Guidebook. Farnham: Ashgate.
• Hollnagel, Eric, David D. Woods, and Nancy Leveson, eds. 2006. Resilience engineering: Concepts and precepts. Burlington: Ashgate.
• International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies [IFRC]. 2010. World Disasters Report. Focus on Urban Risk. Geneva: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
• International Organization for Standardization [ISO]. 2016. ISO 22316:2016, Organizational Resilience. Geneva: International Organization for Standardization.
• Judkins, Gabriel, Marissa Smith, and Eric Keys. 2008. “Determinism within human-environment research and the rediscovery of environmental causation.” The Geographical Journal 174 (1): 17–29.
• Kaufmann, Marielle. 2013. “Emergent self-organisation in emergencies: resilience rationales in interconnected societies.” Resilience 1 (1): 53–68. doi: 10.1080/21693293.2013.765742.
• Keković, Zoran, and Jelena Dinić. 2016. “Transformacija nacionalne bezbednosti: rezilijentnost u strategijama bezbednosti velikih sila kao odgovor na globalne bezbednosne pretnje [National Security Transformation: Resilience within National Security Strategies of Great Powers in Response to Global Threats].” Zbornik Radova Pravnog Fakulteta, Novi Sad L (4), 1141–1156. doi: 10.5937/zrpfns50-12199.
• Keković, Zoran, Zoran Dragišić, and Vladimir Ninković. 2014. “Towards Resilient Critical Infrastructure against Terrorism Risk.” In: Comprehensive approach as “sine qua non” for critical infrastructure protection, eds. Denis Čaleta, and Vesela Radović, 45–59. NATO ARW, Amsterdam: IOS Press.
• Keković, Zoran, Ozren Džigurski, and Vladimir Ninković. 2018. “Determination of Urban Community Development Policies using Urban Resilience and System Dynamics Simulation Approach.” Proceedings of the 5^th International Academic Conference Places and Technologies, 26-27.04.2018. Belgrade: Faculty of Architecture.
• Lidskog, Rolf. 2001. “The re-naturalization of society? Environmental challenges for sociology.” Current Sociology 49 (1): 113–136. doi: 10.1177/0011392101049001007.
• Longstaff, Patricia H., Nicholas J. Armstrong, Keli Perrin, Whitney M. Parker, and Matthew A. Hidek. 2010. “Building Resilient Communities: A Preliminary Framework for Assessment.” Homeland Security Affairs VI (3): 1–23.
• MacKinnon, Danny, and Kate D. Derickson. 2012. “From Resilience to Resourcefulness: A Critique of Resilience Policy and Activism” Progress in Human Geography 37 (2): 253–270. doi: 10.1177/0309132512454775.
• Madni, Azad, M. and Scott Jackson. 2009. “Towards a Conceptual Framework for Resilience Engineering.” IEEE Engineering Management Review 39 (4): 85–102.
• McAslan, Alastair. 2010. The Concept of Resilience. Understanding its Origins, Meaning and Utility. Adelaide: Torrens Resilience Institute.
• National Infrastructure Advisory Council [NIAC]. 2009. “Critical Infrastructure Resilience: Final Report and Recommendations.” Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. Last accessed 11 December 2019. https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/niac-critical-infrastructure-resilience-final-report-09-08-09-508.pdf.
• National Research Council [NRC]. 2012. Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative. The National Academies Press.
• National Security Strategy of the United States of America, May 2010, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf, last accessed 12 December 2019.
• Pavićević, Olivera. 2016. “Koncept otpornosti u sociologiji [The resilience concept in sociology].” Sociologija 58 (3): 432–449. doi: 10.2298/SOC1603432P.
• Pelling, Mark, and Daniel Manuel-Navarrete. 2011. “From resilience to transformation: the adaptive cycle in two Mexican urban centers.” Ecology and Society 16 (2):11 [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art11/.
• Pike, Andy, Stuart Dawley, and John Tomaney. 2010. “Resilience, Adaptation and Adaptability.” Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society 3(1): 59–70. doi: 10.1093/cjres/rsq001.
• Rankin, Amy, Jonas Lundberg, Rogier Woltjer, Carl Rollenhagen, and Erik Hollnagel. 2014. “Resilience in Everyday Operations: A Framework for Analyzing Adaptations in High-Risk Work.” Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making 8 (1): 78–97. doi: 10.1177/1555343413498753.
• Ridley, Gail. 2017. “Resilience and National Security.”. In: The Palgrave Handbook of Security, Risk and Intelligence, eds. Dover, Robert, Huw Dylan and Michael Goodman, 79–98. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
• Righi, Angela W., Tarcisio A. Saurin, and Priscila Wachs. 2015. “A Systematic Literature Review of Resilience Engineering: Research Areas and a Research Agenda Proposal.” Reliability Engineering & System Safety 141: 142–152. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.03.007.
• Schott, Robin May. 2013. “Resilience, Normativity and Vulnerability.” Resilience: International Policies, Practices and Discourses 1 (3): 210–218. doi: 10.1080/21693293.2013.842343.
• Therrien, Marie-Christine, Georges A. Tanguay, and Iseut Beauregard-Guérin. 2015. “Fundamental determinants of urban resilience: A search for indicators applied to public health crisis.” Resilience: International Policies, Practices and Discourses 3 (1): 18–39. doi: 10.1080/21693293.2014.988915.
• UN-Habitat. 2007. Global report on human settlements 2007: Enhancing urban safety and security. London: Earthscan.
• U.S. Department of Defense. 2010. “Quadrennial Defense Review Report.” U.S. Department of Defense. Last accessed 21 January 2020. https://archive.defense.gov/qdr/QDR%20as%20of%2029JAN10%201600.pdf.
• U.S. Department of Homeland Security Risk Steering Committee. 2010. “DHS Risk Lexicon.” Homeland Security. Last accessed 9 October 2019. https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/dhs_risk_lexicon.pdf.
• Walker, Brian, Stephen Carpenter, John Anderies, Nick Abel, Graeme S. Cumming, Marco Janssen, Louis Lebel, Jon Norberg, Garry D. Peterson, and Rusty Pritchard. 2002. “Resilience management in social-ecological systems: a working hypothesis for a participatory approach.” Conservation Ecology 6 (1): 14 [online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss1/art14.
• Walker, Brian, Lance Gunderson, Ann Kinzig, Carl Folke, Steve Carpenter, and Lisen Schultz. 2006. “A handful of heuristics and some propositions for understanding resilience in social-ecological systems.” Ecology and Society 11 (1): 13 [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art13/.
• Walker, Jeremy, and Melinda Cooper. 2011. “Genealogies of Resilience: From Systems Ecology to the Political Economy of Crisis Adaptation.” Security Dialogue 42 (2): 143–160. doi: 10.1177/0967010611399616.
• Wildavsky, Aaron. 1991. Searching for Safety. New Brunswick / Oxford: Transaction Publishers.
• World Economic Forum. 2013. Special Report: Building National Resilience to Global Risks. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
• World Resources Institute, United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme & World Bank. 2008. World Resources 2008: Roots of Resilience – Growing the Wealth of the Poor. Washington DC: World Resources Institute.
• Zebrowski, Chris R. 2009. “Governing the Network Society: A Biopolitical Critique of Resilience.” Political Perspectives 3 (1): 1–38.
• Zebrowski, Chris R. 2013. “The Nature of Resilience.” Resilience: International Policies, Practices and Discourses 1 (3): 159–173. doi: 10.1080/21693293.2013.804672.