KADA ĆE KINESKA EKONOMIJA PRESTIĆI AMERIČKU?

Goran V. Nikolić

Sažetak

Prvi put u modernoj istoriji jedna nezapadna država, Kina, postala je prva industrijska sila sveta i najveći globalni izvoznik. Srednjoročno posmatrano, globalni fi­nansijski sistem se kreće ka multi-valutnom sistemu, gde će dolar postati samo jedna od nekoliko valuta koje će deliti međunarodnu ulogu. Referentne projekcije pokazuju da će ekonomija Kine prestići američku već početnom 20-ih godina ovog veka, i Velika recesija 2007-08. samo je ubrzala ove procese. Međutim, SAD će izvesno još decenijama zadržati tehnološki superiornu privredu, obim vojne moći u poređenju sa onom kod potencijalnih protivnika će ostati neuporedivo veći, dok je stepen političkog uticaja u međunarodnim odnosima bez presedana.

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