ДА ЛИ ЋЕ КИНЕСКА ВАЛУТА ТОКОМ 2020-ИХ ДОБИТИ ГЛОБАЛНИ СТАТУС?

Горан В. Николић

Предраг Петровић

Сажетак

Пандемија КОВИД-19 и с њом повезана економска криза катализује ребаланс у глобалној моћи, од Запада ка Истоку, што се одражава и на валутна тржишта. Процене су да ће значајно ојачати утицај ренминбија (РМБ) током треће деценије 21. века, да би на крају тог периода он постао трећа највећа резервна валута. Ово је повезано са растућом спремношћу страних инвеститора да уђу на једно од ретких тржишта капитала за које се очекује значајан раст у пост-КОВИД-19 ери, пре свега захваљујући убрзању либерализације кинеског финансијског тржишта и очекиваној апресијацији РМБ током 2020-их. Кинески помаци на развоју прве суверене дигиталне валуте ће такође имати велику важност за интернационализацију РМБ. Огромна величина кинеске економије, која ће 2028. вероватно престићи америчку, и растућа улога РМБ-а представљају до сада најозбиљнији изазов за САД и долар. У надолазећем мултиполарном свету може се замислити да долар наставља да игра претежну, али не као сада ексклузивну улогу, у међународној трговини и финансијама. Дакле, јасно је да је РМБ још увек далеко од светске резервне валуте, која захтева пуну конвертибилност и потпуну либерализацију тржишта капитала, али се пут ка трополном монетарном систему, кога би чинили долар, евро и ренминби, назире.

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