Slobodan Janković

The paper presents findings of a study developed as a part of the research project entitled ‘Serbia and challenges in international relations in 2022’, financed by the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia, and conducted by the Institute of International Politics and Economics, Belgrade. This paper, divided in three chapters of uneven length, analyses the world trends in near future. Forecasting major processes at the global scale is a key task of the IR discipline. Author asks the question whether current world order restructuring is causing the outbreak of the new World War. In order to answer the question, he first underlines importance of forecasting, and explains what the world war is. Author claims that approach according to which it is required to have theoretical background in order to make scientific prediction is erroneous. The closest there is to objective framework is according to the author, to employ Italian neoclassical geopolitical school. In the article, author questions international and national, societal, political and only briefly economic trends in the collective West and in the Middle East. He presents the reasons why BRICS, or the East and South are growing and leading the change in major power redistribution in the framework of the new multipolar world order.

Italian policy in South and East Mediterranean could be understood best by applying the Italian neoclassical school of geopolitics. Author first explaines validity of this approach among other possible theoretical backgrounds. He adopts content analysis, economic statistics and geopolitical analysis in order to research the issue. Italy is important player in the macro-region of Mediterranean. Particularly troubled and challenging processes in this part of the world require particular attention of researcher. One way of understanding the processes is looking through the prism of Rome. Author explained the roots of contemporary policy of Italy, geopolitical and economic factors and internal policy. He briefly analysed strategic choices of Italian policies in this part of the world in previous period. Paper is divided in three unequal parts of which central is subdivided in four parts with examination of sources, geopolitical importance of Mare Nostrum for Italy, usage of military missions, relations with Libya, Egypt and Turkey, as three key economic and political countries for Italian politics in that part of the world. He explained interest of Italy in Libya and deterioration of its positions in that country, in paralel with betterment of relations with Egypt where its economic interest are not endangered by other foreign countries, like in Libya. Finally, author emphasizes the role of the political will in conducting foreign policy and claims that Rome lost part of its positions despite of geopolitical, historic and economic importance of this macro-region for Romes’ politics, due to influence of external formal and informal actors on forming foreign and internal policies in the Appenines.

The EU is a major trading power in the world and formally the largest economy. Yet, its security and foreign policy have minor weight in global affairs. The EU is trying to accommodate its economic interests, partnership with the USA and the promotion of the global political and economic policies aimed at the promotion and application of good governance, respect of human rights and democratisation. Although its documents contain popular proclamations and articulated aims towards a more assertive presence in world security, it has achieved modest results in the Middle East and North Africa, where it failed to provide unified action of its member states. Instead, NATO and the Franco-British entante frugale are indirectly taking over the functionality and efficiency of EU Common Security and Defense Policy in this region.